Undoubtedly the new American President with his initiatives changes the geopolitical and geo-economic data on the planet. Trump was voted by the average American citizen to bring jobs and prosperity in the country.
His main slogan was “America First” and exactly what he promised, he now implements. From his first days in the White House he signed a series of decrees that change not only the USA but the world.
Trump, as a successful businessman, is giving special attention to geo-economics and the increase of wealth and economic power of America and its citizens. His purpose is to implement a “protective economy” by reducing imports and increasing exports while creating large industrial plants in the US. In this context he will not hesitate to impose tariffs on products imported into the US, while creating the conditions (tax and labor) for investments in the country.
This economic policy of Washington will bring it against the countries that depend on foreign trade. Germany, China and Japan are predominantly three countries that will be hit by the Trump policy. The coldness between Trump and Merkel is not accidental and it is noteworthy that high-ranking German officials have expressed very negative comments about the new US administration. Possible taxation of German import cars will bring the German economy in an extreme predicament. It is certain that the VW factory in Pueblo, Mexico, which produced about 400,000 cars annually destined mainly for the US and with 35% less cost than what they would have paid if the plant was in the United States will face serious problems. For this reason, Ford canceled the planned construction of its factory in Mexico of $ 1.6 billion and will eventually build in the US.
Washington’s and Berlin’s relations are conflicting, mainly because of conflicting economic interests and are bound to affect the broader relations of the US and EU. It is not unlikely that we might see a “monetary conflict” of the euro and dollar. Along the same lines are moving also Washington’s relations with Beijing and Tokyo. The rivalry with China has received wider dimensions due to Trump’s attitude on the issue of Taiwan.
The country though in line with American interests is Russia. There is an agreement of opinions and goals at geo-economics, but also on geostrategic issues between the two countries. Moscow does not export products to the US; it does not have export trade anyway, which is why Trump is not seeing it as an economic threat. Also Russia is indifferent to any US protectionist policy. Exports of Moscow’s oil and natural gas do not interested Trump because they are aimed to other countries.
Powerful economic interests are bringing closer the two superpowers of the Cold War and will probably generate as a reaction an informal economic alliance of the “affected” Beijing and Berlin. The truth is that Trump’s election created severe headaches and concerns in the “German Europe,” which sees the history repeating again in financial terms, with Germany in the middle between Anglo-Saxons and Russians.
The whole situation is characterized by high uncertainty and fluidity. All await the next moves of the US and are trying to find ways to respond. New alliances are created and old ones are tested or cancelled.
In our region, Washington launches an era of stronger ties with Israel. For Israeli President Netanyahu the eight year Obama era was a “black parentheses,” the worse for American-Israel relations. The mighty Israeli US community supported Trump in the election and now is the hour of reward, with exchange the transfer of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. An action that will fire up the Middle East. Also Egypt and the government of General Al Sisi, is considered together with Israel, one of the pillars of US policy.
In this novel fluid and uncertain situation Greece is standing vague and lost in its problems. Now that the axis Greece-Cyprus, Israel, Egypt is revived again and the US and Russian policy is likely to coincide new opportunities are born. Will our country take advantage of them? Wanted is a Greek leader that will have as his slogan “Greece First ” as Trump had the “America First “. But unfortunately our country is governed by nihilism and randomness.